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30-Jan-2025
How error rates increase match statistic reliability
Reporting an error rate can transform low DNA match statistics into persuasive evidence. Unlike limited software, TrueAllele exactly quantifies the chance of falsely implicating the wrong person. This extra information gives juries confidence in match statistic reliability.
In January 2023, Jennifer Brown disappeared; she was later found in a shallow grave. In her house, a cadaver dog alerted police to the kitchen windowsill. Investigators thought the killer might have removed her body through the window. Her DNA was expected to be on the windowsill. Was her killers DNA there as well?
The lab developed DNA data from the swab. TrueAllele examined the data, returning a low match statistic of 29 to defendant Blair Watts. And calculated an error rate of 1 in 400 – the chance of an uninvolved person having a statistic of 29 or more. This error rate gave more confidence in the match statistic, supporting the prosecutors theory of the case.
Cybergenetics TrueAllele casework supervisor William Allan testified about the match statistic and error rate. This DNA evidence supported the defendant's having been in the victims home, and dragging the victims body through the kitchen window. The DNA helped secure Watts' firstdegree murder conviction. TrueAllele brought in the DNA, delivering justice for Jennifer.